In Praise of Common Sense

Generally, the latest global financial crisis has been attributed to a combination of regulatory failure, inadequate mathematical models and greed. We seem to have been oblivious of another element: tunnel vision. It translates a narrow perspective stemming from concentration on a single idea, opinion, data etc., to the exclusion of others.

Mindsets such as silo mentality, groupthink, herd mentality, bean counting etc., refer to an equally reductive process. Does the financial sector have a monopoly on tunnel vision? Absolutely not. Any system or organisation that inhibits information sharing  and restrains dissent transforms itself into an echo chamber, reduces efficiency and is bound to collapse at some point.

Globalisation is straining our level of consciousness through which we perceive in blacks and whites a world that typically unfolds in grays. The paradox is that while technology integrates and massifies the world like never before, it simultaneously creates fragmentation and boosts demand for more specialised and sophisticated professions. Bearing the "expert" label is not, per se, a curse. But, when it feeds on self-absorption and grows into a media darling, it also loses its relevance, with a potential to hurt badly.

An "expert" is not necessarily dumb though, she may well be the savviest but may have been bullied into a "silo" disconnected from the outside world. As a result, within the same organisation, a consulting firm for instance, members of the same department may be adamantly "bullish" while others in another department may be as adamantly "bearish" on economic prospects.

Too often, we confuse knowledge with intelligence. A four-year-old girl, for example, can be trained to reel off multiples of five up to one thousand. That is probably because she has a very sound memory. Nevertheless, it takes an informed and insightful mind to explain how, say, government officials shelter behind bogus statistics and buzzwords to prove their worth, or to decipher the toxic patterns embedded in IMF/World Bank-inspired policies that make them so backlash-prone.

The bad news is that tunnel vision is not that easy to beat. At best, in the short run, leaders can strive to alleviate its impact by identifying the comfort zones in a bid to somehow unleash cross-sectoral/departmental team spirit and feed-backs. But, we are in the midst of systemic dumbing down. Focus must now be on overhauling the education system so that future generations can cope with challenges to come.

Basically, formal education must enable individuals to switch nimbly from the left or slow brain (analytical) to the right or fast brain (intuitive, creative and contextual) and vice versa. However, we kid ourselves if we trust that merely introducing some hours of "philosophy" courses, for example, will do the trick. In fact, there is no evidence that they help to develop "lateral thinking", "blink", etc. (hot thinker Nassim Taleb even claims “the French cannot think outside the box”); terms coined by various researchers to express sharpened and holistic cognitive skills.

Clearly, exam-oriented education driven by rote learning overemphasises the use of the left or slow brain. If churning out thousands of citizens every year with literal perspective on every encounter and dampened entrepreneurial spirit is not what we desire, we need to urgently revisit school curricula.

They must not only be significantly broader but, in addition, they must be inquiry-based from the very start to ignite both the right or fast and left or slow brains. Interdisciplinary approach to learning is key.

To reduce the risk of being led astray, we must remain wary of leaders from all walks of life who pretend to know more than they actually do. Information must flow freely; it must be filtered and updated regularly too. This is not a case for breeding geniuses, it is about grooming more discerning citizens. A reversion to time-tested common sense is overdue.

By overcoming intellectual and cultural provincialism, we also celebrate pluralism in all its forms, foster collaboration and innovation while paving the way for a drivel–free “modernity”.

The Deindustrialisation Folly

In the wake of Wall Street's debacle, Jeff Immelt, chairman and chief executive of the General Electric Company, is urging American policymakers and business leaders to "drive competitiveness" by "improving the manufacturing structure" and to "draw on 230 years of ingenuity to renew the country’s dedication to innovation, new technologies and productivity". That would indeed be a feat to fit into the shoes of iconic Jack Welch.

In short, Jeff Immelt is merely suggesting that countries do not dance to the tune of intoxicating sirens forever. Simply put, speculation-driven expansion is not sustainable. John Rose, chief executive of Rolls-Royce, made a similar call previously in Canary Wharf-obsessed England. Unlike, say Luxembourg's foundation, Singapore's foundation does not look shaky because, in typical proactive fashion, it has sought to reinvent its economic structure permanently while unleashing innovation-driven SMEs in defiant mood to conquer niche markets worldwide.

Alternatively, a sector-specific approach to policymaking ends up distorting the whole economy. It removes the incentive for innovation in other sectors and hurts overall competitiveness. Worse, it fosters a rent-seeking and too-big-to-fail culture. Mauritius will continue to pay a heavy price until it stops listening to the usual suspects.

The rule of (f)law

If you share the bury-your-head-in-the-sand syndrome with most of our politicians and their embedded “intellectuals”, it is very likely that the current controversy about the use or abuse increasingly of loudspeakers by the muezzin will trigger yet another wave of “shock” along your spine.

If, alternatively, your observations are rooted in the real world, it is very likely that you will consider the issue a symptom, among others, of a society gradually losing its bearings. Before attempting to search for a solution to the problem, so that there is no perception of “bashing”, we all need to carry out a session of soul-searching.

According to Islamic traditions, the first adhaan, or call to prayer, was delivered by an African named Bilal. He was chosen by the Prophet not only because his voice was powerful, but also because it was soulful and melodious enough to appeal to the senses of the Faithful. Today, it would be hard to admit that the adhaan we have to bear with around the country echoes the same uplifting spirit as the one preserved in Egypt or Turkey, for example.

The drift, nevertheless, is not the monopoly of Muslims. The cacophony from congregations in temples or sects in makeshift chapels that rips our cosy nights is everything but reminiscences of say, Karnatic mantras or Gregorian chants. The tragedy is that zealous followers of different beliefs, which ironically aim at liberating souls from all forms of intoxication, are now waging a contest among themselves.

Even within the same religion there can be a tug-of-war among followers of different spiritual leaders. For instance, if there is a consensus on the timings of the salaat, the Muslim prayer, why should neighbouring mosques air concurrently the adhaan over loudspeakers? Does it sound like soul-elevation or muscle-flexing?

We will certainly not be enlightened by the Catholic priest who confessed over a radio debate that “his” church would relinquish the use of bells should the mosque nearby also relinquish the use of loudspeakers. Two wrongs will not make a right. When people feel insecure, they tend to cling to anything within their reach, no matter how insane.

Mauritius is indeed undergoing an identity crisis which will not be resolved until it is first acknowledged. People of different ethnic and religious backgrounds, social classes or even genders imbue society with sufficient conflicting vibes to make cohabitation “risky”. Since mature human beings, probably the silent majority, are generally endowed with the faculty to discern, they seek to alleviate the negative impacts of those “risks”.

A society organises itself according to a set of common values. There is a correlation between the degree of how “civilised” a society actually is and how its citizens have been groomed. Civic responsibility is the key concept to define the limits and it does not exist in a vacuum. In an ideal world, common sense would be enough to instil the desired norms, but due to subtle or in-your-face complexities, that “common sense” often gets perverted before leading us astray.

Here, the capacity building of our institutions – political, legal, business, educational, familial, media, religious etc. – must be scrutinised to identify the shortcomings. The making and enforcing of rules governing cooperative human behaviour is where social order begins. The principle of the rule of law is intended to be a safeguard against arbitrary governance.

The rule of law does not operate in absolute terms. It depends on how citizens have internalised it. The behaviour of road users – drivers, riders and pedestrians – can provide a microcosm to gauge the strength of the rule of law. For example it varies considerably according to whether you are in Mauritius, India, Italy, United Kingdom or Norway.

When trust is violated, the rule of law is weakened. How do we convince the builder of a beach kovil that her action is detrimental to the general good when a miniature Virgin Mary is replicated in another public area or a hotel is “reserving” some space for its customers on the public beach? Worse, how do we convince a citizen not to ignore a traffic light when she regularly sees a policeman, a minister, a judge, a paragon of “corporate governance” or a freemason “overuling” it?

In any case, citizens must never be offered a moral justification to flout the rule of law. Obviously, noise is not the only form of pollution. Deeply “religious” citizens as well as their “secularised” counterparts can also overlap in the same zone. The incentive for a strong sense of civic responsibility will not come through a one-minute exposure to “in peace, justice and liberty” over a loudspeaker during a national festival, no matter how loud. Rather when we breathe and live the noble aspiration every second.

Rupee Depreciation Won't Heal Our Woes

“Price stability is not everything, but without price stability everything is nothing”

Otmar Emminger, former President of the Deutsche Bundesbank

Every year, in the run-up to the budget presentation, there is a tug-of-war between representatives of employees, employers and government to agree on a quantum for the annual pay review. Now they sit together in the freshly set up National Pay Council (NPC) with an independent chairperson expected to settle the dispute with the proposal of a quantum after assessing the views of all parties. Nevertheless, the mechanism, however well-meaning, is still unable to meet expectations. Why does the cycle continue ad infinitum and ad nauseam?

On the one hand, trade unionists claim that pay review must solely be concerned by the redress of loss in purchasing power. Alternatively, from the employers' perspective, and indeed the government's, capacity of employers to pay the increment and productivity data must also be considered. Officially, the three parameters – compensation for erosion of purchasing power, capacity to pay and productivity – constitute the basis of the mandate of the NPC.

In practical terms, the parameters, all critical it must be emphasised, cannot be reconciled because they rest on flawed assumptions, among which the rate of inflation computed by the Central Statistical Office is the most notable. The rate actually measures average changes in the prices of a basket of goods and services which itself is an average representation of the spending patterns of the average household. But is there such thing as a typical household?

The weight of say, food and electricity bills, in monthly expenses of different households varies according to their levels of income. The lower the income, the heavier the burden, especially when there is a surge in global food and fuel prices. Mauritian consumers are even more vulnerable since they live in a country which has failed to commit itself to a reasonable programme of food and energy security and must almost entirely rely on ever-costlier imports – to a large extent the inevitable consequence of the endemic slide of the rupee.

Econoclasm

In an interview, Cader Sayed-Hossen, Chairman of the Commission for Democratisation of the Economy, disclosed how, during a meeting with representatives of the Bank of Mauritius, a business tycoon was advocating rupee depreciation to accommodate the fall in sugar revenue, going as far as even suggesting a quantum. Ironically, a closer look at the behaviour of the rupee over the years reveals that, barring seasonal delusion of new-found vigour as recently, the quantum has already integrated the system.

Had their lobby been as mighty, employees would not have to content themselves with a quantum, the one validated by the government, that in most cases hardly mitigates the negative impact of inflation on their income. This is so because employees tend to be allocated the strict minimum in terms of increment as the income targeted for maximum increment is extremely conservative, if it reflects reality at all.

When the most cynical foreign currency earners fret over the international value of the rupee, they contend that a weak rupee is “good” for the Mauritian economy. Such rumination is dubious. Belief in the salutary effects of a depreciating rupee is based partly on the expectation that rising exports of manufacturing production will increase employment and spur economic expansion. Evidence in Mauritius confirms large recurrent swings in both job creation and economic growth despite persistent depreciation.

While the intimate relationship between inflation rate and currency valuation in a highly open economy like Mauritius cannot possibly be challenged, the alleged relationship between currency depreciation and real competitiveness draws its rationale from tunnel vision rather than from contextual thinking. As currency depreciation feeds into the system, it stimulates a vicious cycle. Sooner rather than later the illusion of short-lived relief wakes up to a situation of self-inflicted damage. 

Brain Pain 

Human capital is the key driver in the pursuit of higher competitiveness. Yet, the depreciation bias has dented the morale of citizens whether subtly, when the slide is smooth, or harshly, when the slide is steeper. Productivity cannot be conjured out of thin air by rewarding the few. Real wealth is generated when the system is imbued with the required incentives that energise the majority.

For decades exporters have been blessed with preferential market access and a weak rupee. To some of them, now that the era of preferential access is fading, there is only the depreciation lobby to cling to. Bad habits die hard. When policymakers give in to them, they also lose grip on strategising to keep up with global capitalism. Hence the tremendous lag in national logistics, such as road networks, port and airport facilities, water supply and so on, that strains operations.

The Bank of Mauritius cannot cope with the complexity of an economy alone. It is little wonder then that it is stuck in a role of a fire-fighter spraying the market with erratic moves. The country is at the crossroads, the time is ripe to rid itself of the aberration of rupee depreciation, arguably the most pervasive distorter and disincentive in the system. Jointly with corruption, producer capture and high risk premium due to low predictability, it skews market prices and embitters industrial relations. Contrary to conventional thinking, it is not always conducive to sound economic fundamentals, such as trade balances. Worse, it often destabilises them, when hit by staggering fuel prices for instance.

No doubt, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England or the European Central Bank can provide the Bank of Mauritius with guiding principles. But when it comes to minimising the risk of rupee volatility, on either side, Mauritius must tailor its policies to its own specificities. Singapore and Hong Kong, two of the stars of globalisation with similar profiles to Mauritius, should instead provide us with the inspiration.

Successive Mauritian governments have earned themselves a reputation of heeding to all sorts of lobbies, no matter how insane, as long as they are loud enough. By adopting such an attitude, governments waste considerable amount of energy and time to manage the resulting distortions, discontents and their domino effect instead of focusing on how to address pressing issues. Under these circumstances, policies tend to be misdirected and eventually backfire. 

Detox 
Policymakers should get their bearings right regarding the grumblers of the export sector. It is not about profit bashing, but about exposing deception. Policymakers must not lose sight on: firstly, the actual returns which for some brush with the returns of luxury items retailers in terms of percentage; then, the fact that manufacturers import spirited workers to beat the demotivation of local workers; and finally, more pivotally, the high import content in the manufacturing process.

In a newspaper report, Serge Seeneyen, Managing Director of Soniawear, said that “when the rupee appreciates, it is up to businesses to take initiatives to mitigate its impact, reduce their operation costs and become more efficient. We are going through tough times, but I remain upbeat. I trust that in the future I will catch up with today’s losses”. What else but a typical expression of entrepreneurial spirit.

The signal that Mauritius is poised for globalisation will come when, namely, similar gung ho statements tweak self-indulgent headlines and when trade unionists are eager to let go of bonuses that are not performance-based. That is, when according to the gut feelings of the majority of businesses and households, regardless of what anointed statistics may boast, their efforts are being adequately rewarded.

Such transformation cannot be presided over. It can merely happen through an enlightened leadership capable of creating the synergy for long-term and sustainable economic expansion that is inclusive and non-inflationary.

Jack L'Eclaireur

Les plus perspicaces parmi nous tirent la sonnette d'alarme depuis longtemps déjà. Il n'est pire sourd que celui qui ne veut pas entendre. Le constat aujourd'hui est consternant. Ce n'est guère une vision apocalyptique, encore moins une quelconque théorie du complot. Au fil des années, l'édifice même de notre vivre ensemble s'est fragilisé. Il n'est pire aveugle que celui qui ne veut pas voir.

Il ne s'agit pas ici de lyncher les fossoyeurs. N'empêche, au fur et à mesure que la griserie (le "miracle mauricien"), la complaisance (en Afrique "nou mem meyer") et le clientélisme (roder-boutisme) se sont infiltrés au sein du système, la "démocratie" si vantée s'est transformée en "réseaucratie". C'est-à-dire, le citoyen peut difficilement aspirer à un maintien, voire une amélioration, de son niveau ainsi que sa qualité de vie sans se débrouiller pour devenir un insider du système tordu. Autrement, le statut d'outsider équivaut à signer un pacte avec un parcours parsemé d'obstacles visibles et invisibles.

La majorité des Mauriciens a certes le mérite d'avoir su préserver ne serait-ce qu'une illusion de bien-être. Hélas, les privations refoulées remontent par d'autres canaux, pas forcément les plus sains, surtout avec une politique nationale de loisirs lamentable. A moins de considérer les casinos comme un exutoire. La démotivation au travail, la consommation de drogue, les maladies cardio-vasculaires, la désintégration de la cellule familiale, la criminalité et le repli identitaire étant parmi les manifestations les plus répandues.

Le diagnostic est cinglant: l'obsession de la croissance économique a exacerbé les inégalités, a radicalisé les conflits sociaux et a déstabilisé l'écosystème. Suffit-il alors de brandir Das kapital (Karl Marx) et de honnir The wealth of nations (Adam Smith) pour restaurer la confiance? Et si c'est le modèle d'une société juste et inclusive préconisée par Politeia/Res publica (Platon) qui peut nous servir d'inspiration. Encore faut-il que, dans l'imaginaire, ce ne soit pas une représentation contaminée et édulcorée au gré de son passage dans le temps et dans l'espace.

Il faut privilégier le concret au détriment de l'abstrait, pratiquement tous les pays souscrivent à des degrés divers à l'"économie de marché". Donc, l'objectif réaliste est de contenir ses excés et ses dérives. Le blocage se situe justement là. Parce que Maurice est essentiellement façonnée par les décisions et indécisions de ses gouvernements. Et les partis politiques mainstream convergent vers la même doctrine "croissance à tout prix".

Que faire?
L'émergence d'une deuxième force crédible se fait toujours attendre. Idem pour le renouvellement des dirigeants dans les partis existants. En attendant, la piste qui semble la plus prometteuse à explorer est une action collective concertée et critique dans le but de provoquer une remise en question. L'initiative doit venir des véritables moteurs de changement. Bien entendu, ils seront majoritairement des outsiders mais il faut aussi des insiders, ceux qui ne pratiquent pas la langue de bois car conscients que personne ne sera épargnée, si on laisse mijoter les frustrations trop longtemps.

Jack Bizlall semble en avoir bien saisi les enjeux. D'autres Mauriciens doivent lui emboîter le pas, qu'ils soient inconnus du grand public ou Bernard d'Arifat, Georges Ah-Yan, Zaheer Allam, Vina Balgobin, Marousia Bouvéry, Jayen Chellum, Ming Chen, Christina Chan-Meetoo, Lindsey Collen, Nita Deerpalsing, Bashir Ebrahim-Khan, Khalil Elahee, Alain Gordon-Gentil, Akash Gura Goredo, Filip Fanchette, Sanjay Jagatsingh, Karim Jaufeerally, Jooneed Jeerooburkhan, Iqbal Ahmed Khan, ,Ibrahim Kooduruth, Kee Cheong Li Kwong Wing, Roland Maurel, Jocelyne Minerve, Jean-Claude Montocchio, Danielle Palmyre, Shenaz Patel, Chetan Ramchurn, Jonathan Ravat, Nicholas Ritter, Guffran Rostom, Serge Seeneyen, Cédric de Spéville, Ashok Subron, Kreepalloo Sunghoon, Dharumvir Takoor, Kendall Tang, Vijaya Teelock, Cassam Uteem, Nathalia Vadamootoo, Daden Vencatasawmy, etc.

Si cette liste n'est pas exhaustive, elle est en revanche hétéroclite, ceci pour bien exprimer la complexité d'une société. La construction de la nation mauricienne restera vaine aussi longtemps que les différentes sensibilités ne sont pas identifiées et intégrées. Du moins, celles qui sont libérées de toutes formes de corporatisme et qui jurent loyauté, non pas à l'asservissement aux diktats matériels, égocentriques et ethnocentriques, mais à tout processus qui oeuvre dans le sens de l'intérêt général.

L'antagonisme gauche-droite ne suffit pas pour renverser la doctrine "croissance à tout prix". Au contraire, il alimente un dialogue des sourds. Pour simplifier, disons que la "gauche" tend vers le "social" et que la "droite" tend vers le "marché". Idéalement, ce serait aboutir à une situation, où, d'une part, la protection sociale et l'autonomisation des citoyens sont optimales et, d'autre part, la concurrence joue au bénéfice des consommateurs et récompense les agents innovateurs. C'est ce que les pays scandinaves, la Suisse, le Canada et la Nouvelle Zélande, entre autres, s'efforcent de proposer avec plus au moins de réussite.

Prétendre qu'il n'existe pas d'alternative à la doctrine "croissance à tout prix" n'est donc qu'une perversion de la réalité. Ce ne sont certainement pas les économistes Paul Krugman, Thomas Piketty, John Kay ou ceux du site web Macroscan, qui sont par ailleurs loin d'être des pourfendeurs de l'"économie de marché", qui diront le contraire. Finalement, c'est la capacité d'anticiper les problèmes futurs et de les résoudre qui compte. A chaque problème, sa solution. Certains contextes justifient plus de "social", d'autres plus de "marché". Singapour est un modèle d'efficacité dans ce domaine.

Pour déverrouiller la situation, les moteurs de changement doivent prendre le devant afin de revendiquer une allocation plus judicieuse des ressources et une redistribution plus équitable de la richesse générée. Ce qui signifie intérioriser notamment que :

- "la corruption détruit la démocratie", selon l'observation de l'écrivain Aravind Adiga, et exiger plus de transparence et de redevabilité dans l'utilisation de l'argent public;

- la dépréciation persistante de la roupie crée un cercle vicieux qui, entre autres, plombe toute tentative d'améliorer la productivité et pénalise la compétitivité;

- la dimension spéculative dans l'exploitation de nos terres est suicidaire et que sans une réforme agraire, Maurice met en péril sa sécurité alimentaire et énergétique future.

L'aspiration de Maurice à devenir "durable" ne pourra être concrétisée que si elle passe du mode "shareholder" à celui de "stakeholder".

Talking' Bout a Revolution

Arianna Huffington, co-founder of groundbreaking The Huffington Post, an American internet newspaper launched in 2005 as a progressive alternative to conservative mainstream media, reminds us:

Don't forget: our media culture failed to serve the public interest by missing (with a few honourable exceptions) the two biggest stories of our time: the run-up to the Iraq war and the financial melt­down. We've had far too many autopsies and not enough biopsies. And online news is well suited to obsessively follow a story until it breaks through the static. We need to also remind ourselves that the mission of journalism has always been truth-seeking not, as it has often become, striking some fictitious balance between two sides.

As things stand, it is fair to say that the "two biggest stories of our time", that is "Mauritian miracle" and "reform", have failed media scrutiny too. But reality rarely fails to bite deception.

What's the next verse Tracy?

... people gonna rise up
And get their share
... people gonna rise up
And take what's theirs

Street Fighting Years

When the link is lost between citizens and governments,
When politicians see the world through the eyes of rent-seekers,
When mainstream media is infatuated with the darlings of Big Business,
It's no surprise mobocracy takes on flawed democracy.
Protest is the TINA (There Is No Alternative) of the disenchanted.
True, the critical mass is not there yet,
But the build-up looks promising.
Slowly, but surely, civil society is waking up.
The consent manufactured by reactionaries is fading.