Saturday, October 6, 2012

Moris - C'est mari top d'être différent

Maurice fait-elle face à la concurrence acharnée de l'industrie mondiale du tourisme avec intelligence? Même si nous aimerions le croire, les galimatias et les événements grotesques suggèrent le contraire.

Maurice a surfé sur son image exclusive pendant des décennies. Certes, cela ne pouvait pas avoir été généré tout seul. Nos plages ne sont pas aussi immaculées que celles des Maldives; elles se sont sans cesse rétrécies sous le diktat des projets immobiliers, et pourtant, elles ont conservé leur attrait, pour les Européens du moins. Nous pouvons également  nous vanter d'un paysage intérieur  agréable, mais loin d'être bien préservé. Notre atout le plus précieux et complémentaire est un mélange unique de pluralisme culturel, qui mérite le statut du patrimoine mondial de l'UNESCO, avec un sens (certes en régression) de l'hospitalité.

 Le cosmopolitisme semble être imprimé dans notre ADN. En terme de marketing, c'est une aubaine. Notre mauricianité authentique a le potentiel de libérer l'énergie créatrice voulue pour faire face à un monde où les "produits'' différenciés n'ont jamais été aussi déterminants. Quoi qu'en pensent les sceptiques, l'identité mauricienne, dont la complexité et l'évolution ne peuvent pas être précisément définis, existe bel et bien. Dans sa manifestation la plus pure, c'est un melting-pot d'identités multiples avec une magie qui demande à être partagée, soignée et exhibée. Plutôt que de risquer l'assimilation dans un mode de vie hégémonique, à travers une contamination par, nommément, des récits ("modernes") qui sont loin de nous être communs et qui inhiberaient tout exotisme tout en exaltant une schizophrénie culturelle. 

Le plus déprimant, c'est que, ces derniers temps, nos attitudes ont tellement mal tourné. Attendre des Mauriciens qu'ils restent insensibles face au mépris institutionnalisé, au clientélisme politique et à l'instrumentalisation ethno-religieuse, est absurde. Avec un ascenseur social en lambeaux, seulement une poignée d'initiés s'identifie au Projet Mauricien. Pour commencer, nous avons vraiment besoin de nous émanciper de la servitude que les "élites" sont préoccupées à perpétuer dans l'ère post-coloniale. En fait, Maurice comme marque ne nécessite aucun slogan. La seule mention de Maurice est souvent suffisante pour éveiller les sens. Le défi consiste à inverser l'expérience actuelle qui ne tend pas à correspondre aux attentes. 

Tout comme la mauricianité, la construction de la nation mauricienne, ou le mauricianisme, n'est pas un processus statique. Quand saurions-nous que Maurice bascule vers l'autodétermination? Quand probablement; nous nous sentons intuitivement concerné par l'image de Maurice à travers notre propre regard. Plutôt que celui des visiteurs, qui d'ailleurs ne manqueront pas de subir nos humeurs; nous nous méfions d'un modèle où les pôles d'excellence sont en train de créer, de façon disproportionnée, de l'innovation d'un niveau appréciable, tandis que le coeur du pays sombre dans un potentiel sous-développé; nous nous aimons assez pour accueillir les débats parlementaires dans notre lingua franca; nous célébrons notre héritage convoité et multiculturalisons les noms communs (par exemple, Port Lwi, M Bi Si, K-h-an) plutôt que de les écorcher (Port Lwiss, Aime B C, Quand); les visages des billboards représentent nos vraies couleurs.

Nous ne pouvons pas nous permettre de louper les occasions pour ajouter de la valeur à la destination. Sans doute, manger à l'extérieur compte parmi les instants qui saisissent le mieux le charme d'un pays. Nous pourrions exploiter le statut de Shelina Permalloo, en tant que championne de la compétition de cuisine amateur BBC Masterchef, pour mettre en exergue les saveurs mauriciennes particulières à travers une street food revigorée, saine et hygiénique. Préparée avec un maximum de  produits du terroir et sans pesticides, bien sûr. Nous pourrions également fusionner notre excellent classement dans l'Indice de la qualité de l'air, tel que mesuré par l'Organisation mondiale de la santé, avec les ambitions de Maurice Ile Durable. Aussi longtemps que nous soyons fixés quant à savoir si ce n'est pas un club sélect des pires touristes au monde (selon les hôteliers interrogés à travers le monde par le site de voyage Expedia), une cité-état de bling-bling ou un immense casino à la Macao, que nous désirons secrètement. 

Avant de cibler les niches dans ce labyrinthe, une dose de réalisme doit être intégrée. Nous ne pouvons pas rivaliser avec la vivacité urbaine de New York, le shopping de Dubaï, le bronzage garanti des Seychelles, la verdure de Costa Rica, le sens naturel du style de l'Italie, l'hédonisme d'Ibiza  ou le carnaval torride de Rio. N'est-ce pas? Le monde a radicalement changé. Le marché n'a jamais été aussi segmenté. Valeur du jour, les habitudes de consommation en Occident sont très différentes de celles des économies émergentes. Sauf pour les pays en grande difficulté, la demande pour les produits sur mesure n'en est pas moins une tendance marquée. Ce qui est proposé doit être constamment étudié et remis à jour. 

Nous serions plus productifs si nous cogitions à comment rendre Maurice attrayante à ces voyageurs comptant, entre autres, ceux  en quête de tourisme de bien-être, de célibataire, culturel, éthique, familial, frugal, gay, luxe, médical, musulman (la Thaïlande et la Gold Coast australienne sont déjà bien braquées), senior. D'autant plus que nous aurons plus de mal à attirer la diaspora indienne si accro à Bollywood pendant que les paysages mauriciens se font rares dans les scènes de chant et de danse. Nous pourrions aussi côtoyer les Japonais et les Persans humbles et raffinés, tout comme les Scandinaves au sens aigu de civisme pour nous apporter une bouffée d'air frais.

Par ailleurs, nous pouvons nous inspirer du festival de Fès des musiques sacrées, du défilé de mode éthique de Berlin et de la galerie Saatchi de Londres pour mettre en évidence des artistes en herbe et chevronnés du monde. Et d'y ajouter, par exemple, les événements majeurs inclus dans le circuit professionnel de golf et de kite surf. La visibilité n'est pas une fin en soi. Elle doit être spécifique à la cible. Le blues de l'après "miracle" sonne désormais faux. Tout comme les roadshowsLa conjoncture exige une métamorphose. Pourquoi ne pas geler à jamais tous projets pieds dans l'eau et stimuler plutôt l'investissement dans des boutique hotels?

C'est un leadership capable de susciter la collaboration de toutes les parties prenantes dans une stratégie planifiée qui fait cruellement défaut. Nous n'avons pas d'autre choix que de transformer l'industrie hôtelière en une industrie hospitality de plein droit. Il est en effet paradoxal de fantasmer ouvertement sur une clientèle "haut de gamme" tout en cajolant discrètement les forfaits tout inclus. Quelque chose que nous ne pouvons pas légiférer contre, mais qui peut être poussée hors du marché par une concurrence et connectivité aérienne dynamique avec des lignes comme Qatar Airways et AirAsia. Le dénigrement aveugle du tourisme "sac à dos" est également révélateur de cette propension à accaparer le marché. 

Une destination dite de qualité n'est pas réservée aux milliardaires. Elle atteint son objectif lorsque l'acheteur est satisfait de la jouissance du "produit" qu'il a délibérément choisi d'acheter à un prix plus élevé. Sans doute la dimension physique d'un "produit" compte pour beaucoup, mais la manière dont il est livré est aussi décisive. Par exemple, un transport public intelligemment mis en place à un tarif abordable, comme en Suisse, comprenant un système ferroviaire lui-même supplée par des bus et taxis confortables et fiables, contribuent à un séjour agréable. Le marchandage peut certainement contribuer aux joies des vacances, mais nous devons nous assurer que personne ne soit arnaqué parce que le gouvernement est incapable de rendre obligatoire les taximètres. Quoi qu'il en soit, les forums de feedbacks tels que tripadvisor.com font et défont impitoyablement les images.

Le souci d'offrir le meilleur rapport qualité-prix est une formule éprouvée. Il s'agit d'une obsession pour fournir aux citoyens comme aux touristes un environnement pour se détendre en toute sécurité, tout en se procurant des biens et services produits le plus écologiquement et au moindre coût possible.  Pour optimiser nos compétences non techniques, il est aberrant de prétendre qu'imposer une réduction de salaire par une dépréciation de la roupie ferait l'affaire. Au mieux, le gourou du service clientèle Ron Kaufman ne pourra déclencher que des ondes positives éphémères au sein, disons, du service de la police et de l'immigration, ou parmi les employés des hôtels et de Air Mauritius. Car, finalement, la meilleure publicité se transmet à travers le Mauricien épanoui.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Mauritius - It's awesome to be different

Is Mauritius responding to the cutthroat global competition in the tourism industry with the smartest mindset?  Even if we would like to believe so, the patchwork of muddled thinking, half-baked policies and grotesque events suggest otherwise.

Mauritius has been surfing on its exclusive image for decades. Surely, that could not have been self-generated. Our beaches may not be as pristine as Andaman's; they have constantly been shrinking under the rapacity of eyesore developers; yet, somehow, they have preserved their appeal, as far as the European is concerned. We can also still boast of a pleasant, albeit far from unspoilt, inland landscape. But our most valuable and complementary asset is a unique blend of cultural pluralism, that deserves UNESCO's world heritage status, with a (waning) sense of hospitality.

The cosmopolitanism that seems to be imprinted into our DNA comes with many benefits. In marketing terms, it is a boon. Authentic Mauritianness has the potential to unleash the desired creative energy to cope with a world where "product'' differentiation has never been so pivotal. No matter the skeptics, there is such thing as a Mauritian identity, whose complex and evolving characteristics cannot be precisely defined. In its purest manifestation, it is a melting pot of multiple identities with a mojo that must be shared, cared for and flaunted. Instead of risking assimilation into a hegemonic lifestyle, through contamination by alien ("modern") narratives, namely, that would supremely conceal serene exoticism and exude cultural schizophrenia.

What is depressing is that, lately, national ethos have turned so much out of character. Trusting Mauritians to stay cool in the face of permanent institutionalised contempt, economic clientelism and ethno-religious instrumentalisation is absurd. With a reward system in tatters, only a handful of insiders identify with the Mauritian Project. For starters, we badly need to emancipate ourselves from the paradigm of servitude that self-seeking "elites" have been busy perpetuating in the post-colonial era. In fact, Mauritius as a brand requires no tagline. The very mention of Mauritius is often enough to thrill. The challenge is to reverse the actual experience that currently does not tend to live up to expectations. 

Just like Mauritianness, Mauritius-building, or Mauritianism, is a never-ending process. When do we know Mauritius is on the verge of self-determination? Probably when; intuitively, we feel concerned about the image of Mauritius through our own eyes. Rather than those of visitors, who incidentally are bound to bear the brunt of our moods; we grow wary of a model where clusters of excellence are creating a disproportionately reasonable level of innovation, while the mass of the country still has a lot of underdeveloped potential; we are reliably secure to welcome Parliamentary debates in our local lingua franca; we celebrate our coveted heritage and multiculturalise common names (e.g MBC, Khan, Accenture)  rather than twisting their spelling (Emm Bé Sé, Quand, Aksan-tur); billboard faces represent our true colours.

We cannot afford missing opportunities to add value to the destination. Eating out arguably counts among the features that capture most the charm of a country. We could harness Shelina Permalloo's celebrity status, as a champion of  BBC’s amateur cooking competition Masterchef, to showcase the distinct Mauritian flavours of a revamped, healthy and hygienic street food scene. Prepared with a maximum of pesticide-free local produce of course. We could equally merge our top ranking in the Air Quality Index, as measured by the World Health Organisation, with the Maurice Ile Durable aspirations. As long as we make up our minds about whether it is not a select club for the world's worst tourists (according to worldwide hoteliers polled by travel site Expedia), a city-state of bling or a Macau-style casino dome, we secretly fancy.

Before carving niches in the maze, a dose of realism must be instilled. We cannot possibly match New York's urban vibrancy, Dubai's retail therapy, Visayas' sun tanning promise, Costa Rica's lush green splash, Italy's effortless sense of style, Ibiza's bastion of hedonism or Rio's raunchy carnival for that matter. Can we? What must sink in is that the world has dramatically changed. The market has never been more segmented. Currently, spending patterns in the West are strikingly different from emerging economies. Barring struggling countries, demand for bespoke "products" is nonetheless a marking trend.What is on offer ought to be constantly researched and updated.

We would be shrewder mulling how to make Mauritius friendly to such sanguine travelers counting among others the cultural, ethical, family, frugal, gay, luxury, medical, Muslim (Thailand and Australia's Gold Coast are all geared up), senior, single, wellness. Whereas luring Bollywood-crazy Indian diaspora should grow trickier with Mauritian spots almost fading out of song-and-dance scenes. Rubbing shoulders with the humble Japanese, the suave Persian, the civically active Scandinavian and the neo-"cool" South Korean, can help turning things around too. 

While we may draw inspiration from the festival of sacred music in Fez, the ethical fashion show in Berlin and Saatchi's gallery in London to stage budding and seasoned artists from around the world annually, we may also supplement with major events included in the professional golf and kite surf tours. Visibility cannot be pursued for visibility's sake. Exposure must be target-specific. The post-"miracle" blues have gone miserably out of tune. So have the self-indulgent roadshows. The conjuncture is begging for a metamorphosis. What about freezing all beachfront ventures for good and incentivising boutique hotels?

The elusive link is a leadership with strategic planning that synergises all stakeholders. We have no alternative than to transform the hotel industry into a full-fledged hospitality industry. It is indeed ironic to openly wish for a premium clientele while greeting guests on all-inclusive packages through the backdoor (hence daftly benchmarking against the Dominican Republic rather than Seychelles or Maldives). Something we cannot legislate against, but that can be nudged out of the market through reinvigorated airline competition and connectivity with new award-winning players such as Qatar Airways and AirAsia. Taxes and surcharges regardless of short or long haul and Rodrigues flights deserve to be urgently re-assessed too.

The indiscriminate bashing of backpackers is also telling about the propensity to corner the market. A premium destination is not restricted to the well-heeled. It is achieved when a visitor is delighted with the delivery of the "product" she has deliberately chosen to buy at a higher price. No doubt the physical aspect of the "product" matters but how it is delivered is as critical. For instance, an affordable and intelligently-networked Swiss-like public transport with a railway system supported by comfortable buses and reliable taxis contributes to an enjoyable stay. Haggling can add to the joys of holidays, but we must ensure that nobody is ripped off because the government is unable to make taximeters compulsory. Anyway, review boards such as tripadvisor.com mercilessly make or break images.

Striving to offer value for money is a time-tested winning formula. It involves an obsession with providing citizens and tourists alike an environment to chill out safely while being offered goods and services produced most ecologically and cost-effectively. To maximise our soft skills, it is extremely doubtful whether ganging up for a pay cut through rupee depreciation will do the trick. At best, customer care guru Ron Kaufman may trigger a short-lived uplift among, say, police and immigration officers, or hotel and Air Mauritius employees. As, ultimately, the content Mauritian yields the best advertisement.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Penalty Point System: Beware the tunnel vision

Few residents of Mauritius would resist the call for a "remède de cheval" to rein in the number of casualties on our roads. In what increasingly looks like an ingrained approach to problem-solving, the "permis à points" is now the prescribed panacea. Is it rather the system incubating before us an innovative hub where systems thinking is redundant?

Had Germany, for instance, been as obsessively focused on speed, overzealous brigades would have equally been rallied in speed ambushes on their autobahns. It is not that unwarranted speed does not contribute to road accidents, but it is one among many factors. Namely; poorly trained, if trained at all, driving instructors; shoddy road infrastructure; inadequate, non-existent (such as "Keep left unless overtaking" on dual carriageways) or non-visible road signs and markings; extreme tolerance to reckless behaviour including that of drivers, bikers, jaywalkers and "marchands ambulants" etc. 

As the speed traps are currently set, they are akin to a nasty cash cow meant to replenish the "empty coffers" that raise the eyebrows of the toothless Audit watchdog every year. Instead of genuinely aiming at road safety. With the "permis à points", they may increasingly be perceived as a weapon of repression. Or worse, one of distraction and indeed corruption. In terms of preventive campaigns, the holistic approach, if it is not mere common sense, seems to be lacking too. In a television clip recently about precautions before overtaking, there was hardly any mention of rear-view and side mirrors and the use of flashers.

On an even more serious note, have our "gabelous" themselves internalised the desired driving norms? And is leading by example as ubiquitous as expected to impose the strongest rule of law possible?

Monday, November 14, 2011

The Wealth Drainers

Since the 1980s, Mauritians have been brainwashed into believing that unless governments pick "winners" to bake the national cake, no prosperity will trickle down. To ensure the effectiveness of the process, citizens have been summoned to bear with the retreat of government "hands" from the marketplace and also with the loosening of social safety nets. There have been some feelgood flashes, but now that the dream sold to them is vanishing, citizens are waking up to a corporate republic where the "winners" picked take all, or leave insignificant crumbs for them.

As the sirens of doldrums crescendo to a haunting level, a multidimensional reassessment of our development strategy becomes a matter of survival. Quick fixes and half-baked measures have reached their moment of reckoning. So has the pro-growth propaganda whose mainstay is the expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at all costs. GDP says little about actual (mis)allocation of resources. No wonder behavioural economics are such a hot research topic today.

King of Pain
There may not be evidence in all situations that some politicians, business tycoons and media pundits conspire against citizens, but what is obvious is that toxic policies are crafted under their patronage. Nor should "trickle-down" economists go unscathed, even if for them, gratification is more likely to come intellectually. Nonetheless, no other colour matters more to networks of patronage than that of money. They unwittingly expose all the symptoms of vile neoconservatism under the garb of liberalism.

As it is currently run, the economic and political game is rigged against authentic entrepreneurs and progressive citizens. What is shocking is not so much the cynicism with which local or foreign oligarchs and speculators manage to tweak policies and market conditions in their favour, but how casually the guardians of the State enable them. The betrayal is no stranger to the growing apathy of ordinary citizens.

It is foolish to expect change to come through the Hall of Shame that constitutes networks of patronage. Unless a sudden scientific breakthrough makes it possible to reignite the insular cortex - the tiny part of the brain related to the feeling of empathy - and to adjust the dopamine regulator to a risk-taking bias. Change will either come when the existing system collapses under the weight of its deception, or when enlightened members of the business world, civil society, including the media, and even the political class back grassroot initiatives that empower Mauritians to claim back their citizenship.

Pro-Market, Not Pro-Cronies
When citizens do not challenge unfettered capitalism, it turns on them dramatically. Capitalism works when it is guided by governments that are resolutely pro-market. That is, when they strive to create a level playing field where healthy competition and innovation thrive. The drift starts when the relationship between government officials and businessmen gets too intimate. Crony capitalism is indeed the main driver of the growth strategy that inflates bubbles after bubbles, even after they burst.

Networks of patronage could not express more openly their ambivalence as in their zealous embrace of the Integrated Resort Scheme (IRS), where resource depletion, market distortion and confidence busting reign supreme. In a bid to somehow salvage the elusive "economic democratisation" agenda, the Real Estate Scheme (RES) followed suit to cater for property development on a smaller scale. The "Maurice Ile Durable" project would be mere hallucination should the levers of development stay put. Vision stems from leadership. If you fail to develop an inclusive environment where the goals are visible and the route to them is clear for all to see, then you are not a leader.

Mauritius is far from being a poor country. The problem is that wealth generated collectively is being captured massively by mightily connected businesses and governments, separately or when their interests overlap in public procurement. The bottom line of banks and the dubious costing of the State Trading Corporation, for example, speak volumes. As do the success stories of the preying Aid Industry, championed by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and the Consultancy Industry, that boast of holding silver bullets capable of simplifying the real world's complexity.

Our politicians will prove their worth when they stop sheltering behind idiocies such as "belt tightening" and "empty coffers" and, inter alia:

-Rescue the education system that is , simultaneously, a producer of thousands of dropouts with a potential to be social offenders.
-Reinvent the shabby healthcare sector.
-Guarantee non-stop water supply nationwide.
-Devise a long-term plan that connects the country with a value for money railway service.

Transparency, the Road Less Travelled
Resorting to ideology to resist messianic posturing and dissent bullying is vain. An alternative system can only emerge through idea-rich and ideology-free activism. Instead of managing the structures, information flows and reward systems, our illusionary development strategy has badly polarised the country and left an unenvious legacy of world-beater in terms of diagnosed and undiagnosed prevalence of diabetes (and possibly AIDS too), drug addiction, road accidents and so on. Whereas in some areas, correction, prevention and repression will have to be evolutionary, in others they can only be revolutionary.

The overriding aim of political action must be to promote human collaboration that creates the trust on which both democracy and markets depend. A smartly trained, motivated, and informed population is our single greatest competitive advantage to meet today’s tremendous economic challenges. Without civic scrutiny, it is impossible to contain clientelistic relationships, where loyalty is traded for benefits. A new lifestyle is key to stopping national and household debt spin out of control.

The following areas require urgent attention:

-Democratic platform: A dose of proportional representation (PR) is being suggested as a panacea to resolve our democratic deficit. But, what is the point of enacting the PR if it has to overpopulate the Parliament? Worse, if instead of delivering alternative voices, it turns out to be another public relations (PR) exercise for networks of patronage. At this stage, regulating electoral funding seems much more pressing.

-Business environment: The competition watchdog is a salutary move to deter economic rent-seeking. Mauritius has a lot to learn from countries like Norway, Germany, South Korea and Switzerland in the way they energise small and medium-sized businesses. Today, their nimbleness rests on the inventiveness and vibrancy of that sector in the world market, rather than on endemic currency depreciation. Our capital market also needs to be less risk-averse, to say the least.

-Civic empowerment: The implication of the Freedom of Information Act goes deeper than the disclosure of information or records held by government bodies, it can inhibit rogue practices too. The Equal Opportunities Act also can help to boost citizens’ morale. Moreover, the possibility of including class-action lawsuits and public interest litigation must be explored to unleash and safeguard citizen, consumer and (small) shareholder activism and rights as they permit efficient resolution of legitimate claims of numerous parties by allowing the claims to be aggregated into a single action against a defendant that has allegedly caused harm.

Merely introducing new mechanisms of control, legislation and tax incentives, however critical, will bring little relief if our institutional deficit is not addressed. We kid ourselves when we confuse means with end, and vice versa. The credibility of institutions is linked to citizens' perception of the integrity of women and men representing them.

Without strong rule of law and leadership by example, everything is wishful thinking. The prerequisite for a green Mauritius is a clean and lean Mauritius with discerning citizens.

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Is Mauritian sense of hospitality turning bitter?

What has Mauritius achieved since its political "independence"? Well, it does not only depend on the elements of comparison, but also on the experiences of each individual. The perception may differ dramatically according to whether one, is for instance, a wretched soul from Karo Kalyptis or a casual foreign traveller with or without Nobel blessing.

From a strictly material standpoint, the overall impression tends to showcase a "progress" represented, among other things,
by better-equipped and cyclone-proof houses, satellite dishes, highways, shopping malls. Upon deconstructing the "devlopma," a far more nuanced reality settles. The critical question is: at what cost?

In the wake of the "miracle" of the 1980s, full employment, extra income in households and relatively low inflation have contributed to the expansion of disposable income and the sophistication of lifestyle. All of a sudden "needs" became more affordable,
"wants" were accessible to many Mauritians, regardless of the magnitude of indebtedness. Proof that, even if it was short-lived, a feel good factor was in the air. Yet it is in such a mood that a comprehensive transformation is less painful to implement.

The gap between supply and demand in virtually every sector has kept widening ever since whether in terms of quantity or quality. Today, mismatches are so glaring that it becomes legitimate to be worried. If there is a virtue that seems at odds with the characteristics of our successive governments, except perhaps to a lesser extent the first government after independence, it is planning. The star features of post-"miracle" governance
are self-indulgence and babble.

Here is a very telling depiction of what distinguishes vision from hallucination: the third terminal operational recently at Changi Airport in Singapore was already enrolled in the master plan of 1975. In Mauritius, "growth at all costs" has blinded us from the imperative for foresight and to adapt to global change. To satisfy the obsession instead of updating and synergising policies, Mauritius has been largely confined in boosting its economic expansion through rupee depreciation while benefiting from preferential agreements.

Gradually, as the country shifts from the era of "miracle" and the benevolence of "friendly countries", Mauritians, for whom "needs" and "wants" have overlapped in the meantime, wake up to a situation where
they have to struggle even for the minimum subsistence level. As persistent fat cat-backed rupee depreciation - despite some anecdotal respite - and producer capture gnaw at their purchasing power, they find themselves in a debt trap with the threat of unemployment hovering over their heads. Thus, for many Mauritians, existence is now a matter of survival.

Unfortunately, not everyone has been endowed with the same strength of character to cope. In fact, while some, victims of ingrained socio-cultural stigma or prisoners of a lack of training and qualifications, are more vulnerable and often drown in social ills, others are forced to combine two or more jobs in a bid to make ends meet or still others consider emigration as the ultimate escape from dire straits.

Today it is undeniable: the attitude of much of our human capital can frustrate even the most empathetic employer. Is it because Mauritians have become reckless "assistés" and deliberately choose the path of least resistance? Why then these young Mauritians freshly landed in, say, Canada, demonstrate so much pep? Like entrepreneurs, other citizens thrive on the prospect of future rewards. Mauritius-building is intimately correlated to how deeply the majority of Mauritians identify with "devlopma".

Gloom is set to persist until distortions in the mechanism of redistribution of wealth and the social ladder are acknowledged and resolved. In this context, what Mauritius does not need are these dogmatic "reforms" packaged by the Aid Industry that perpetuate our reliance and undermine the very foundations of coexistence. Simultaneously, crony capitalism, transmitted by endemic corruption, promotes a concentration of the country's resources dangerously.

Would it be presumptuous to suggest that if Mauritius has achieved whatever it has achieved, it is less because of its successive governments, but more in spite of them? In a survey by an employers' organisation, only 6% of respondents praise the "reforms" hailed by rent seekers and their apparatchiks as the gold standard of policy-making.

Meanwhile, one of the enablers of "booms" and "busts" to come argued that
Integrated Resort Scheme projects should not be heavily taxed because it would "kill the goose that lays golden eggs." To put it bluntly, "reducing bureaucracy" can be tantamount to scrolling the red carpet for members of a "club" cleverly targeted. Mauritians are expected to rejoice when land grabbing by the affluent lasts indefinitely.

What about these "poor" who have the privilege of a particularly cynical plea? Do they not correspond in reality to the 94% of businesses and households by extension, excluded from the networks of patronage and are content with the crumbs of the "fruits of the reforms"? Food and energy security, environmental sustainability, blooming through a vibrant cultural scene and affordable leisure activities would hence be wishful thinking.

The desired turnaround will remain elusive until a critical mass breaks free of the scourges probably bequeathed by colonisation and an education system that glorifies the ability to memorise.
"Hero"-worship and discernment deficit that lead to hopelessly partisan and binary mindsets on the one hand, and the tyranny of "experts" and bogus champions on the other, mutually reinforce each other. Will a partnership between the University of Mauritius and the World Bank then more likely to create robust growth or robust groupthink?

To challenge the siphoning of public funds, citizens must first internalise the fact that governments are merely custodians of their own money, before they develop the reflex to relentlessly advocate unflinching transparency. An overhaul of the legal framework of electoral funding and a Freedom of Information Act have the potential to jointly convey probably the most effective deterrent against corruption. Another reflex that must sink in is the urge for "sanzman" not because we do not want to earn a bad name from foreigners but because our governments are primarily accountable to us.

Without the activism of taxpayers, consumers and minority shareholders to claim their social and economic rights, without, in return, a leadership capable of rallying the majority of Mauritians around a real social project, Mauritius will never offer its citizens the quality of life they actually deserve. Indian Supreme Court judges epitomise how forces for good are bound to emerge somehow as they take judicial activism to new heights precisely to supplement rogue politicians.

Finally, it is immaterial whether inspiration comes from North or South,
East or West, Left or Right. The missing link is a result-oriented outlook, a brand of pragmatism nonetheless thoroughly stripped of Bushism or Sarkozyism. Breeding lost generations is suicidal. Ironically, without fresh blood at its heart the revamp of Mauritius is a nonstarter.

The key to the well-being of Mauritius lies in the integrity of its system.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Mauritius (dis)empowered

Our relationship with the West smacks of neo-colonialism: it corresponds to a love-hate affair of a suitor wooing a femme fatale with a colourful past. It brushes with the ambivalent but with its own original twist.

As a country of immigrants, we have yet to proclaim that Mauritius-building has reached a satisfactory level. Worse, daily encounters with fellow citizens even suggest that it is waning. The demotivation of a workforce tempted by the sirens of xenophobia and emigration is indeed a distinct symptom of inhibited people who feel more humiliated than rewarded by a system.

Whereas many Americans have managed – albeit in a longer time frame and before “Bushism” hit them by storm – to overcome the same constraint, it is to a great extent because they have been groomed to challenge “conventional wisdom”. Their rule-based patriotism revolves around what their legendary architect Philip Johnson dubbed the “wow principle”, that child-like fondness of novelty.

Alternatively, when people are educated through rote learning, their gullibility tends to be more easily exploited, less and less subtly lately, by “elites” bent on promoting the status quo through puppet “experts” and political leverage. Although this is a global trend, its degree is highlighted in a tiny country like Mauritius where resources are even more limited. The resulting asymmetries can brew devastating impulses if they are not addressed with diligence.

In IMF and World Bank we trust

Does it necessarily take the rapid cognition of Lee Kuan Yew, the maverick behind Singapore’s aura, to dismiss the consultancy of the World Bank because it “presents its findings in a bland and universalizable way that does not grapple with the real problems”? Countries choose to kowtow to their sloppy doctrine at their own risk and peril.

Alan Reynolds, a senior fellow with the U.S. libertarian think-tank Cato Institute, whose ethos is a far cry from the lefties with a romanticized vision of the world, surveyed the IMF track record in "Money and the Nation State". He found that “IMF requirements to raise taxes and debauch the currency had always contributed to crises, while policies that lifted countries out of crises, and even created "economic miracles", were always home grown”.

He compared our policies in 1982 which were viscerally IMF-centric to those of 1983 when a relatively independent-minded Finance minister took office and embraced measures outside the usual IMF package that stimulated a “feelgood” economic expansion. It is a shame that the opportunity was not seized to complement our infrastructural development with a massive overhaul of our economy that would certainly have spared us the gloomy zeitgeist.

According to Joseph Stiglitz, a recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, who has taught at Oxford University, MIT, Stanford University, Yale University and Princeton University, “the IMF frequently consists of third-rank students from first-rate universities and has almost never succeeded in recruiting any of the best students”. Their like-minded buddies must be scrutinized too, the more so when they play a key role in the decision-making process.

The former Finance minister deserved a headline-grabbing accolade for experimenting a new genre where Kafka meets Don Quixote when he rapturously announced that the IMF and the World Bank would help us in the setting up of a “centre of excellence” for the training of our executives! Now the cost of the ticket for the intimidating rollercoaster ride is being forced out of our pockets.

Herd mentality and leadership

The trouble is that even our policymakers, barring a few, have outsourced their thinking. It is not that overseas know-how is not desirable. In fact it is one of the prerequisites to bandwagon as long as we pick the smartest minds within their own specialist fields because not all of them are “éminents”! A session of myth busting should provide a relief.

No doubt an affiliation to Harvard University, LSE or McKinsey can provide the useful tools to devise a strategy. It is rather a policymaker’s ability to “block out what is irrelevant and focus on narrow slices of experience to read a complex situation” as emphasized by Malcolm Gladwell in his riveting Blink that determines whether a strategy will work or not. There is no formula for winning. If only! Affiliation, family name or more perversely skin colour are no substitutes for hard thinking and core competence to generate results.

Policymakers should be able to differentiate between a “destination” and a “journey”: where they ought to concentrate their energies. For instance, setting a growth rate target or any other target for that matter is essential, but what matters most is how policies implemented are going to create the necessary environment and momentum that will absorb joblessness, boost productivity and achieve real competitiveness without resorting to a junk rupee.

Dubai is pondering its future beyond 2025. Without a clear vision that sinks in everybody’s psyche, it is impossible to achieve anything sustainable. The job of policymakers is to measure supply and demand in relevant sectors, then benchmark the projects with yardsticks aiming at excellence and more concretely devise and implement policies that allow a flow freed from visible and invisible obstacles.

Adopting a common-sense approach amidst overwhelming gibberish is understandably a challenge. Still, policymakers must try to detect the links in the pattern of interaction between every stakeholder. A strategy works when the action of one stakeholder does not undermine the action of another. Market players tend to respond rationally to incentives. Our long-term prosperity depends on whether the incentives inspire risk-taking or rent-seeking.

We continue to wallow in a vicious circle because our successive governments have been implementing most policies in a fragmented way that fails to foster any synergy. Ultimately, success is tributary of the quality of ideas and data collected locally and worldwide and arguably the one element most elusive to our main policymakers, acumen to contextualise them with an interdisciplinary and cross-cultural approach.

In order to cope with global capitalism, the laudable but hopelessly insufficient empathetic leadership of our Prime minister must also instil a no-excuses and get-it-done mindset, the mainstay of Jack Welch, the former revolutionary CEO of General Electric. What does it take to ignite the neurons of our policymakers?

Friday, March 25, 2011

La dépréciation de la roupie parasite Maurice

« La stabilité des prix n'est pas tout, mais sans la stabilité des prix tout se complique »
Otmar Emminger, ancien président de la Deutsche Bundesbank


Chaque année, dans le sillage de la présentation du budget, nous assistons
à une partie de lutte entre les représentants des employés, des employeurs et du gouvernement pour s'entendre sur un montant pour la révision des salaires. Ils se réunissaient au National Pay Council (NPC), avec un président indépendant qui aspirait à régler le différend avec la proposition d'un barème, après avoir évalué les points de vue de toutes les parties. Néanmoins, le mécanisme, aussi bien intentionné soit-il, a été incapable de répondre aux attentes. Il est très peu probable que le National Tripartite Forum ne puisse modifier grand chose. Pourquoi ce cycle à l'infini ?

D'une part, les syndicalistes affirment que la révision des salaires doit uniquement être concernée par la réparation de la perte du pouvoir d'achat. Du point de vue des employeurs, et du gouvernement aussi, la capacité des employeurs à payer l’augmentation et l'accroissement de la productivité doivent aussi être considérés. Officiellement, les trois paramètres - la compensation de l'érosion du pouvoir d'achat, la capacité à payer et la productivité - constituaient la base du mandat du NPC.

En termes pratiques, les paramètres, tous pertinents faut-il le souligner, ne peuvent être conciliés parce qu'ils reposent sur des hypothèses non seulement insuffisantes, mais trompeuses. Parmi lesquelles le taux d'inflation calculé par le Central Statistics Office est le plus crucial.
Le taux mesure les variations moyennes des prix d'un panier de biens et services qui lui-même est une représentation moyenne de la structure des dépenses du ménage moyen. Mais existe-t-il un ménage type? De surcroît avec la disparité criante qui caractérise le système salarial national.

Le poids des dépenses alimentaires et de l'électricité, par exemple, dans les dépenses mensuelles des ménages différents varie en fonction de leurs niveaux de revenu. Plus le revenu est bas, plus la charge est lourde, surtout quand il y a une envolée du prix de l'alimentation et du carburant sur le plan mondial. Les consommateurs mauriciens sont encore plus vulnérables car ils vivent dans un pays qui n'a pas réussi à s'engager dans un programme raisonnable de sécurité alimentaire et énergétique et doit presque entièrement dépendre sur des importations de plus en plus coûteuses - dans une large mesure la conséquence inévitable de la dépréciation endémique de la roupie.

Econoclasme

Dans une interview, Cader Sayed-Hossen, président de la Commission pour la démocratisation de l'économie, révèle comment, lors d'une réunion avec des représentants de la Bank of Mauritius (BoM), un magnat des affaires prônait la dépréciation de la roupie pour pallier la baisse des recettes du sucre, allant même jusqu’à suggérer un barème. Ironiquement, en scrutant le comportement de la roupie au cours des années, nous constatons que ce barème a déjà intégré le système. Certes avec une vigueur retrouvée
épisodique quand la BoM tient tête à l'instrumentalisation par des entreprises nocives et se laisse guidée par la raison.

Si leur lobby avait été aussi puissant, les employés n'auraient pas à se contenter d'un barème, celui validé par le gouvernement pour l’ajustement salarial, qui dans la plupart des cas atténue à peine l'impact négatif de l'inflation sur leur revenu. Il en est ainsi parce que les employés ont tendance à être compensés au strict minimum car le revenu ciblé comme base d’ajustement est extrêmement conservateur, pour ne pas dire irréaliste.

Lorsque les bénéficiaires de devises les plus nombrilistes fulminent sur la valeur internationale de la roupie, ils prétendent qu’une roupie « faible » est « bonne » pour l'économie mauricienne. Cette posture aussi cynique que paternaliste sur les effets bénéfiques d'une roupie dépréciée est fondée en partie sur l'espoir que la hausse des exportations de la production manufacturière augmentera l'emploi et stimulera l'expansion économique. Or, nous constatons à Maurice une évolution en dents de scie dans la création d'emplois et la croissance économique malgré la dépréciation persistante.

Bien que la relation intime entre le taux d'inflation et le taux de change dans une économie très ouverte comme Maurice ne saurait être contestée, la prétendue relation entre la dépréciation de la monnaie et la compétitivité réelle tire sa justification dans une vision étriquée plutôt que dans une compréhension intuitive de la situation. Comme la dépréciation s’infiltre dans le système, elle stimule un cercle vicieux. Tôt ou tard l'illusion d'un soulagement finit par se révéler qu’une autoflagellation.

Malaise mauricien

Le capital humain est le facteur déterminant dans la quête d’une hausse de la compétitivité. Hélas ! La lubie pour la dépréciation a sérieusement entamé le moral des citoyens. Que ce soit subtilement, lorsque le glissement est lent, ou sévèrement, lorsque le glissement est rapide. La productivité ne peut être créé par magie en récompensant seuls les citoyens les plus influents. La véritable richesse est générée lorsque le système est imprégné d’incitations primordiales au dynamisme de la grande majorité.

Pendant des décennies, les exportateurs ont eu la chance d'accès préférentiel aux marchés et une roupie faible. Pour certains d'entre eux, maintenant que l'ère de l'accès préférentiel s'estompe, il ne reste que le lobby de la dépréciation pour s'accrocher. Les mauvaises habitudes ont la vie dure. Lorsque les décideurs cèdent à leurs caprices, ils perdent aussi leur pouvoir dans l’élaboration des stratégies d’adaptation au capitalisme mondialisé. D'où le retard grandissant dans la logistique nationale, tels que les réseaux routiers, les installations portuaires et aéroportuaires, l'approvisionnement en eau et ainsi de suite. Rouillant ainsi dangereusement les courroies de transmission du système.

La BoM ne peut pas faire face à la complexité d'une économie seule.
Il n'est pas étonnant alors qu'elle soit coincée dans un rôle de pompier face à un
incendie de forêt. Le pays est à la croisée des chemins. Le moment est venu de se débarrasser de l'aberration de la dépréciation de la roupie, un cancer qui ronge le système. Conjointement avec la corruption, les cartels et la prime de risque élevée en raison de la prévisibilité faible, elle fausse les prix du marché et aigrit les relations industrielles. Contrairement aux idées reçues, elle n'est pas toujours propice à la consolidation des fondamentaux économiques, tels que les balances commerciales. Pire encore, elle les déstabilise, avec l'impact du prix du carburant par exemple.

Sans doute, la Federal Reserve, la Bank of England ou la Banque centrale européenne peuvent fournir
les principes directeurs à la BoM. Mais quand il s'agit de réduire au minimum le risque de volatilité de la roupie, Maurice doit adapter ses politiques à ses propres spécificités. Singapour et Hong Kong, deux des étoiles de la mondialisation avec des profils similaires à Maurice, devraient plutôt nous servir d’inspiration.

Nos
gouvernements successifs ont acquis une réputation de prêter attention à toutes sortes de lobbies, peu importe leur fondement, aussi longtemps qu'ils sont assez bruyants. En adoptant une telle attitude, les gouvernements gaspillent beaucoup d'énergie et de temps à gérer les distorsions qui en résultent, le mécontentement et leur effet domino au lieu de se concentrer sur les solutions aux problèmes urgents. Dans ces circonstances, les politiques ont tendance à avoir un effet boomerang.

Désintoxication

Les décideurs ne devraient pas perdre leurs marques face aux jérémiades émanant de certains bénéficiaires de devises. Il ne s'agit pas de dénigrer le profit, mais d'exposer la supercherie. Les décideurs ne doivent pas perdre de vue - premièrement, la profitabilité réelle qui, pour certains, n’ont rien à envier aux détaillants de produits de luxe en termes de pourcentage ; puis, le fait que les fabricants importent des ouvriers étrangers pleins d’entrain pour surmonter la démotivation des ouvriers locaux ; et enfin, plus centralement, la part élevée des intrants importés dans le processus de fabrication.

Dans un article de journal, Serge Seeneyen, directeur général de Soniawear, affirme que «lorsque la roupie s'apprécie, il appartient aux entreprises de prendre des initiatives pour atténuer son impact, réduire leurs coûts de fonctionnement et devenir plus efficaces. Nous allons traverser des moments difficiles, mais je reste optimiste. J'espère qu'à l'avenir, je vais rattraper les pertes d'aujourd'hui ». Rien d'autre qu’une expression typique de l'esprit d'entreprise.

Le signal que Maurice est prête pour la mondialisation viendra au moment où, à savoir, de telles déclarations positives remplacent les unes complaisantes et quand les syndicalistes sont prêts à lâcher des primes qui ne sont pas liées à la performance. C'est-à-dire quand conformément au ressenti de la majorité des entreprises et des citoyens, indépendamment de ce que le lissage statistique peut claironner, leurs efforts sont récompensés de manière équitable.

Une telle transformation ne peut être présidée ou sous-traitée. Elle peut seulement se produire à travers un leadership éclairé capable de créer la synergie nécessaire à une expansion économique non-inflationniste,
inclusive et durable.